Recent advances of quantitative modeling to support invasive species eradication on islands

Abstract

The eradication of invasive species from islands is an important part of managing these ecologically unique and at-risk regions. Island eradications are complex projects and mathematical models play an important role in supporting efficient and transparent decision-making. In this review, we cover the past applications of modeling to island eradications, which range from large-scale prioritizations across groups of islands, to project-level decision-making tools. While quantitative models have been formulated and parameterized for a range of important problems, there are also critical research gaps. Many applications of quantitative modeling lack uncertainty analyses, and are therefore overconfident. Forecasting the ecosystem-wide impacts of species eradications is still extremely challenging, despite recent progress in the field. Overall, the field of quantitative modeling is well-developed for island eradication planning. Multiple practical modeling tools are available for, and are being applied to, a diverse suite of important decisions, and quantitative modeling is well placed to address pressing issues in the field.