Earth Observation and Geospatial Analysis for Fire Risk Assessment in Wildland–Urban Interfaces: The Case of the Highly Dense Urban Area of Attica, Greece

Abstract

Highlights: What are the main findings? The study delivers the first detailed region-wide mapping of the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) in Attica, showing that 26.3% of the region is WUI, with shrub-dominated interface classes (142, 132) the most extensive. Multi-decadal fire analysis demonstrates that wildfire recurrence is a defining feature of Attica, with 35% of the region having been affected by at least one fire since 1983. What are the implications of the main findings? Attica is among the most fire-exposed metropolitan regions in Southern Europe, where settlement expansion and fuel continuity converge to intensify wildfire risk. The integrated risk maps provide critical tools for land-use planning, fuel management, and civil protection strategies in peri-urban Mediterranean environments. Wildfires increasingly threaten Mediterranean landscapes, particularly in regions like Attica, Greece, where urban sprawl, agricultural abandonment, and climatic conditions heighten the risk at the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). The Mediterranean basin, recognized as one of the global wildfire “hotspots”, has witnessed a steady increase in both fire severity, frequency, and burned area during the last four decades, a trend amplified by urban sprawl and agricultural land abandonment. This study represents the first integrated, region-wide mapping of the WUI and associated wildfire risk in Attica, the most densely urbanized area in Greece and one of the most fire-exposed metropolitan regions in Southern Europe, utilizing advanced techniques such as Earth Observation and GIS analysis. For this purpose, various geospatial datasets were coupled, including Copernicus High Resolution Layers, multi-decadal Landsat fire history archive, UCR-STAR building footprints, and CORINE Land Cover, among others. The research delineated WUI zones into 40 interface and intermix categories, revealing that WUI encompasses 26.29% of Attica, predominantly in shrub-dominated areas. An analysis of fire frequency history from 1983 to 2023 indicated that approximately 102,366 hectares have been affected by wildfires. Risk assessments indicate that moderate hazard zones are most prevalent, covering 36.85% of the region, while approximately 25% of Attica is classified as moderate, high, or very high susceptibility zones. The integrated risk map indicates that 37.74% of Attica is situated in high- and very high-risk zones, principally concentrated in peri-urban areas. These findings underscore Attica’s designation as one of the most fire-prone metropolitan regions in Southern Europe and offer a viable methodology for enhancing land-use planning, fuel management, and civil protection efforts.