Religious Trends among Arab Muslims, 2010–2022: Continued Revival, Polarization, or Burgeoning Secularization?

Abstract

The “Islamic revival” of the latter 20th century entailed a surge of religious faith among Muslims in Arab countries. But few studies have investigated religious trends in more recent decades—specifically, whether revivalist trends are holding strong, or religiosity is beginning to fade. Using survey data from 11 Arab countries, this study finds that religiosity was becoming weaker in the mid-2010s, but this religious decline was confined to men and youth, while women and elders largely maintained their existing levels of religiosity. This was followed by a sharp rebound in religiosity during the COVID pandemic (2020–2021), supporting arguments that people turn to religion for comfort during times of crisis. As the pandemic eased, religious decline resumed and occurred comprehensively among many demographics. This study also found evidence for religious polarization in recent years, whereby the number of secular, non-religious Arabs has grown alongside an expanding group of highly religious Arabs. Finally, values that entail a role for Islam in government, also known as political Islam, do not appear to be fading among Arab Muslims, even during periods when personal religiosity is in decline.