EVACUEE NUMBER ESTIMATION IN BUNKYO WARD AND ACCEPTANCE PREPAREDNESS OF SHELTERS IN THE EVENT OF AN EARTHQUAKE IN THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN REGION

Abstract

This study estimates the number of evacuees that can be accommodated in 32 shelters in Bunkyo Ward and investigates shelters' refugee-acceptance preparations. Across shelters, the estimated evacuee number ranges from 500 to 2,500, with 2 shelters having an excess of approximately 1,000 people, who arrive because of house destruction and fires. Some shelters underestimate the number of these evacuees. Regarding the check-in procedure, counter-plans prove insufficient for large-scale evacuations and for shelters that do not follow the local government's policy regarding stranded commuters. Therefore, each shelter must estimate the number of refugees and establish an appropriate situation-based individual system.