Estimation of the probability of propulsion loss by a seagoing ship based on expert opinions

Abstract

The event of the loss of propulsion function has been defined as hazardous event to a seagoing ship. It has been formalized. The procedure of acquisition of expert opinions on frequency of the event occurrence has been described. It may be considered to be of a numerical-fuzzy character. The fuzzy part was transferred to the numerical form by the pair comparison method. An example of the ship propulsion system comprising a low speed internal combustion engine and a fix pitch propeller illustrates the method presented. It may be used wherever a hazard analysis has to be performed of a system involving human and technical aspects and there is a shortage of objective data on the investigated object.