Resource-use efficiency and environmental sustainability in the village tank cascade systems in the dry zone of Sri Lanka: An assessment using a bio-economic model

Abstract

Introduction: Village tank cascade systems (VTCSs) were built in ancient Sri Lanka as autonomous and climate-resilient agro-ecological systems. This study examines crop choices, farming profitability, and environmental sustainability under alternative rainfall regimes and market interventions in the Mahakanumulla VTCS of the Anuradhapura district. Method: A bio-economic model was developed to represent farming activities in the VTCS for the 2018-19 Maha and 2019 Yala cultivation seasons with data gathered from secondary sources and a key informant survey. The objective function of the model was the maximization of profits from farming. Resource limits were set for four types of land (highlands and lowlands in the Maha and Yala seasons), two types of labor (hired and family), and twelve-monthly water constraints. Six different models were developed for the six sub-divisions of the VTCS, considering the water-management hierarchy of the system. The models were simulated under alternative rainfall regimes and market interventions. The optimal crop mixes, farm profits, and shadow prices of resources associated with the baseline scenarios were compared with those of the counterfactual scenarios. Results and discussion: This analysis clearly illustrated that water and labor are the key determinants of the system. Also, when 922 ha of lowlands and 205 ha of uplands were allocated per annum for crop cultivation under normal environmental conditions, the annual profitability of the VTCS was LKR 111 million. During drought periods, a sharp reduction in profits was observed in the Maha season. Year-round drought caused a 77% profit reduction compared to the baseline. The Maha drought alone caused a reduction of 47%. The introduction of a buy-back arrangement for chili and maize helped farmers to increase profits by 185 and 28%, respectively, under normal climate scenarios, turning to 954 and 5% during extreme drought scenarios, compared to the baseline. The least nitrate leaching and soil losses occurred in green chili cultivation. The introduction of market-based solutions is recommended to address extreme climate events experienced by the rural communities dependent on the VTCSs in Sri Lanka.