Predictors of poor outcome in embolic stroke of undetermined source

Abstract

Objectives: To identify the clinical predictors of death or disability at discharge. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all ischemic stroke patients admitted to the stroke unit of King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from February 2016-July 2018. We applied the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) criteria. We compared patients with poor outcomes (death or modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score >2) to those with favorable outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of poor outcome. The regression model included age >60 years, gender, body mass index >25 kg/m2, smoking history, comorbidities, previous ischemic/transient ischemic attack, pre-stroke mRS score >1, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission >5, pre-stroke antiplatelet use, and thrombolysis treatment. Results: Out of 147 patients who met the ESUS criteria, 28.8% had poor outcomes. Predictors of poor outcome were NIHSS score >5 (odds ratio [OR] 11.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4–28.2), pre-stroke mRS score >1 (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.14–11.59), and age >60 years (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.14–5.22). Conclusion: A significant proportion of ESUS patients were dead or disabled at discharge. Poor outcome was more in older patients with pre-stroke functional disability and moderate to severe stroke.