Forecasting of Motorcycle Product Sales in Indonesia Using the ARIMA Method

Abstract

This research aims to analyze selling of motorcycle products when economic growth slowed down and effected of Covid 19 using the ARIMA method problems causing the downturn of motorcycle market in 2023. The study used a quantitative approach with secondary data sourced by The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) from January until December 2020 to January until December 2022. The data were analyzed using the ARIMA method and Minitab aplication to calculate, identify and predict the patterns and trends with time series for sales of motorcycle products in the following years in 2023. The results show that predictable using ARIMA method and Minitab aplication is affected by sale of motorcycle market in 2023. The ARIMA method was able to capture the patterns and trends of the sale motorcycle products and predict its future sale. The study found that the based on data from the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) domestic motorcycle sales is expected to experience fluctuations in the short term but will likely trend upward in the long run for motorcycle companies and can predict purchasing power by consumer.