Climatic and environmental limiting factors in the mongol empire’s westward expansion: Exploring causes for the mongolwithdrawal from Hungary in 1242

Abstract

From its formation in the early years of the thirteenth century, theMongol Empire expanded rapidly along the steppe belt and trade routes comprising the Silk Road, forming partnerships with merchants and encouraging commerce, while also subjugating the resident nomadic and sedentary societies. In 1241–1242, theMongols invaded and occupied Hungary for a year before mysteriously withdrawing eastward into the steppes. Many theories have been offered for this event and why Hungary’s border ended up marking the westernmost terminus of theMongol Empire, including most recently Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s “environmental hypothesis” that short-term climatic fluctuation and environmental factors played a decisive role. This paper employs a comparative historical methodology to discuss three broad topics: the suitability of the Kingdom of Hungary for long-term occupation by the Mongols; the role that the climatic events of 1242 played in the famine that ravaged the kingdom after the withdrawal; and the role that environmental factors could have played in Mongol military setbacks and problems during the invasion. By doing so, this paper also aims to address additional points newly raised by Büntgen and Di Cosmo in a reply they made to an earlier article which questioned the enviromental hypothesis.