Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake

Abstract

The Southern Ocean provides dominant contributions to global ocean heat and carbon uptake, which is widely interpreted as resulting from its unique upwelling and circulation. Here we show a large asymmetry in these contributions, with the Southern Ocean accounting for 83 ± 33% of global heat uptake versus 43 ± 3% of global ocean carbon uptake over the historical period in state-of-the-art climate models. Using single radiative forcing experiments, we demonstrate that this historical asymmetry is due to suppressed heat uptake by northern oceans from enhanced aerosol forcing. In future projections, such as SSP2-4.5 where greenhouse gases increasingly dominate radiative forcing, the Southern Ocean contributions to global heat and carbon uptake become more comparable, 52 ± 5% and 47 ± 4%, respectively. Hence, the past is not a reliable indicator of the future, with the northern oceans becoming important for heat uptake while the Southern Ocean remains important for both heat and carbon uptake.