A risk score assessment tool for peripheral arterial disease in women: From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Abstract

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) carries a significant morbidity and mortality. Women are more commonly affected with this condition and are mostly asymptomatic, and undertreated. The objective of the study was to develop and validate a simple risk score to identify women with PAD. Hypothesis: Identifying those at early stage of the disease could help reduce the risk of complications. Methods: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004, we identified women who had data on ankle brachial index. The cohort was divided into development (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Using variables that are self-reported or measured without laboratory data, we developed a multivariable logistic regression to predict PAD, which was evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: A total of 150.6 million women were included. A diagnosis of PAD was reported in 13.7%. Age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, non-oral contraceptive pill usage, and parity were all independently associated with PAD. The C-statistics was 0.74, with good calibration. The model showed good stability in the validation cohort (C-statistics 0.73). Conclusion: This parsimonious risk model is a valid tool for risk prediction of PAD in women, and could be easily applied in routine clinical practice.