Modeling the impact of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Dire Dawa, Afar, and Somali, Ethiopia: an African regional perspective

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate variables on dengue transmission dynamics using an advanced deterministic model that incorporates climate-related entomological parameters. Key findings indicate that temperature and rainfall significantly influence dengue transmission by affecting mosquito behavior and life cycles. Human behavior plays a key role in influencing the severity and spread of dengue amid climate change. To effectively address climate-related impacts on dengue, strategies must go beyond technological and environmental solutions and also focus on modifying behaviors related to urbanization, vector control, hygiene, and health-seeking practices. Our sensitivity analysis highlights vital parameters such as the biting rate, where a mere 1-unit increase can elevate the basic reproduction number () by one unit. Similarly, transmission probabilities (and) and the mosquito birth rate collectively contribute to approximately 50% of disease amplification. Interestingly, a 1.4-fold increase in mosquito mortality rate () significantly reduces, underscoring the potential of targeted mortality interventions. Furthermore, we examined all mosquito related climate based parameters that enable us to identify the region that more affected and regions exhibit varying environmental conditions and outcomes, with Somali showing the most favorable conditions for dengue transmission. Among the strategies evaluated, the combined use of pesticide-treated bed nets and prompt treatment of infected individuals proved to be both highly effective and cost-efficient. Our findings emphasize that managing mosquito populations through environmental controls such as enhanced drainage systems and waste management is paramount in mitigating dengue outbreaks. This comprehensive approach offers a promising pathway to safeguard vulnerable communities against the growing threat of climate-influenced dengue transmission.