Hydrological effectiveness of ecological governance in the Yellow River Basin: a meta-analysis of water quality and ecosystem responses

Abstract

Ecological and environmental issues in river basins are one of the challenges facing global society in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and conflicts arising from transboundary river basins are also a core issue in sustainable water resource management. The Yellow River is one of the most important transboundary rivers in China and serves a critical function in China's Ecological Civilisation Construction and economic development. This study conducted a meta-analysis and random forest regression on 382 cases to examine the potential mechanisms and internal dynamics of the Yellow River Basin's management effectiveness from three angles: biodiversity, ecosystem function, and water quality. The research findings indicate that governance measures have a significant positive impact on ecosystem service functions, but their effects on habitat quality and carbon sequestration are limited. After governance, biodiversity indicators did not show significant improvement, while water quality did not deteriorate further. Additionally, the study found that the effectiveness of governance measures is influenced by both natural and socio-economic factors, particularly water quality indicators. This study indicates that governance outcomes exhibit a certain degree of imbalance, reflecting the interplay between natural and socio-economic factors, and provides empirical evidence for optimising future comprehensive management measures in the Yellow River Basin.