How influenza vaccination and virus interference may impact combined influenza-coronavirus disease burden

Abstract

Demand for influenza vaccine rose as countries prepared for the second COVID-19 wave over the winter months of 2020-2021. High coverage of the influenza vaccine can significantly reduce morbidity and mortality of the burden of influenza. Natural influenza infection creates short-term non-specific immunity against respiratory viruses (virus interference). We model two viral diseases, both of the SEIR type, to investigate whether the influenza vaccine increases the combined disease burden of influenza and COVID-19 in a dual outbreak. We show that the combined disease burden’s behavior depends on virus interference factors and the proportion of the population vaccinated against influenza. Our results indicate that influenza vaccination only lowers the overall disease burden when net virus interference is relatively low.