Comparison of two statistical climate downscaling models: a case study in the Beijing region, China

Abstract

Climate change can have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle. This article focuses on the comparison of the statistical down scaling model (SDSM) and the automated statistical downscaling model (ASD), which are applied to global climate model (GCM) predictions for the Beijing region. Through the analysis of the evaluation indices in the calibration and validation periods, the results show that both downscaling models simulate the temperature and evapotranspiration well, but the simulation of precipitation is not as good as that of other climate factors. The overall performance of ASD model is slightly superior to that of SDSM model, especially in the process of predictor's selection. The future climate change downscaled by the two models shows an analogous trend as well. The temperature and evapotranspiration show a general increasing trend. The precipitation shows a different trend with an increasing trend in the south and a decreasing trend in the north.