Projection of future sea level and its variability in a high-resolution climate model: Ocean processes and Greenland and Antarctic ice-melt contributions

Abstract

Using a high-resolution climate model, we projected future sea level and its variability based on two scenarios for 21st century greenhouse gas emission. The globally averaged sea level rise attributable to the steric contribution was 23 and 30 cm for the two scenarios. The results of the high-resolution model and a medium-resolution version of the same model for global and local sea level change agreed well. However, the high-resolution model represented more detailed ocean structure changes under global warming. The changes affected not only the spatial distribution of sea level rise, but also the changes in local sea level variability associated with ocean eddies. The enhanced eddy activity was responsible for extreme sea level events. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.