A Risk Score to Predict Hypertension in Primary Care Settings in Rural India

Abstract

We used the data of 297 participants (15-64 years old) from a cohort study (2003-2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ‰35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ‰3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive value of 90.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.802 (95% confidence interval = 0.748-0.856). This simple and easy to administer risk score could be used to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India.