Spatiotemporal Analysis of Vegetation Fires and Carbon Monoxide Pollution in Indonesia

Abstract

Highlights: What are the main findings? In Indonesia, fire activity declined overall between 2012 and 2024 but remained persistent. Strong seasonal peaks continue during the dry season, especially from August to October, with fire activity intensifying by more than 400% during El Niño years. Spatial regression revealed that fire activity is closely correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) pollution, particularly in the forested regions of central Kalimantan, western Sulawesi, and southern Java. What is the implication of the main finding? Persistent seasonal peaks and El Niño–driven fire surges highlight the need to integrate fire management into climate adaptation and public health planning. Strong spatial links between fires and CO pollution in specific regions suggest that region-focused interventions in forests and peatlands could deliver the greatest benefits for air quality and emission reduction in Indonesia. Vegetation fires in Indonesia, particularly in forests and peatlands, are major drivers of air pollution, with impacts on public health, biodiversity, and climate. Using satellite-derived data from 2012 to 2024, we identified an average of 21,271 fires annually, with peak activity during the dry season (August–October). 32.0% of total fires occurred in forests; and 21.9% in peatlands. While a seasonal Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed a statistically significant decline in fire activity over this period (approximately 502 fewer fires per month), seasonal peaks remain persistent during the late and post-monsoon periods. Notably, fire activity increased by more than 400% during El Niño years (2015–2016, 2018–2019, 2023–2024) compared to non-El Niño years. Through geographically weighted regression (GWR), we found that fire activity is closely correlated to carbon monoxide (CO) pollution. The relationship was strongest in the forested regions of central Kalimantan, western Sulawesi, and southern Java. Our findings highlight the amplifying effects of El Niño events on fire dynamics and air quality and the urgent need for targeted, climate-responsive fire management strategies. Strengthening mitigation and adaptation efforts in tropical forests and peatlands will be critical for protecting human health and reducing emissions in the region.