Analysis and projection of sea level rise in Medana Bay, North Lombok district

Abstract

Medana bay located in North Lombok District and administratively located in Medana Village. Located in small island, climate change impact become a serious threat to sustainability of society livelihood and ecosystem. One of the impact was sea level rise in which analyzed by using the sea level anomaly data from altimetry satellite of AVISO. the satelite data became a baseline data to produce and extracted into a trend graphic of sea level rise using Ocean Data View Model. Furthermore, sea level projection conducted by using tidal data which obtained through the Wxtide software to produce the statistic data from monitoring station of geophysics, climatology and meteorology bureau. Sea level projection analyzed by simple linker regression of Least Square. Sea level rise in Medana Bay area is 0.19 m or 19 cm during this 20 years from 1994 to 2014. It shows the increase is about 0.0096 m or 0.96 cm per year. Based on the data analysis due to 2100, the sea level will increase by 0.29 m or 29 cm since 1994. The result of simple method projection analysis then validate by SRESS Model of IPCC projection. The result between 2 methods are nearly equal.