Unraveling Spatially Diverse and Interactive Regulatory Mechanisms of Wetland Methane Fluxes to Improve Emission Estimation

Abstract

Methane fluxes (FCH4) vary significantly across wetland ecosystems due to complex mechanisms, challenging accurate estimations. The interactions among environmental drivers, while crucial in regulating FCH4, have not been well understood. Here, the interactive effects of six environmental drivers on FCH4 were first analyzed using 396,322 half-hourly measurements from 22 sites across various wetland types and climate zones. Results reveal that soil temperature, latent heat turbulent flux, and ecosystem respiration primarily exerted direct effects on FCH4, while air temperature and gross primary productivity mainly exerted indirect effects by interacting with other drivers. Significant spatial variability in FCH4 regulatory mechanisms was highlighted, with different drivers demonstrated varying direct, indirect, and total effects among sites. This spatial variability was then linked to site-specific annual-average air temperature (17.7%) and water table (9.0%) conditions, allowing the categorization of CH4 sources into four groups with identified critical drivers. An improved estimation approach using a random forest model with three critical drivers was consequently proposed, offering accurate FCH4 predictions with fewer input requirements. By explicitly accounting for environmental interactions and interpreting spatial variability, this study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms regulating CH4 emissions, contributing to more efficient modeling and estimation of wetland FCH4