Assessing Critical Risk Factors to Sustainable Housing in Urban Areas: Based on the NK-SNA Model

Abstract

Housing sustainability is a cornerstone element of sustainable economic and social development. This is particularly true for China, where high-rise residential buildings are the primary form of housing. In recent years, China has experienced frequent housing-related accidents, resulting in a significant loss of life and property damage. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing housing sustainability and provide a basis for the prevention and control of housing-related safety risks. This study has developed a housing sustainability evaluation indicator system comprising three primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators. This system is based on an analysis of the causes of over 500 typical housing accidents that occurred in China over the past 10 years, employing research methods such as literature reviews and expert consultations, and drawing on the analytical frameworks of risk management theory and system safety theory. Subsequently, the NK-SNA model, which significantly outperforms traditional models in terms of adaptive learning and optimization, as well as the explicit modeling of complex nonlinear relationships, was used to identify the key risk factors affecting housing sustainability. The empirical results indicate that the risk coupling value is correlated with the number of risk coupling factors; the greater the number of risk coupling factors, the larger the coupling value. Human misconduct is prone to forming two-factor risk coupling with housing, and the physical risk factors are prone to coupling with other factors. The environmental factors easily trigger ‘physical–environmental’ two-factor risk coupling. The key factors influencing housing sustainability are poor supervision, building facilities, the main structure, the housing height, foundation settlement, and natural disasters. On this basis, recommendations are made to make full use of modern information technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence to strengthen the supervision of housing safety and avoid multi-factor coupling, and to improve upon early warnings of natural disasters and the design of emergency response programs to control the coupling between physical and environmental factors.