The prognostic utility of GRACE risk score in predictive adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease

Abstract

Background: GRACE risk score models are capable of predicting all-cause mortality of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients. However, its utility for evaluating major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in NSTEMI patients with multivessel disease (MVD) remains unclear. Methods and results: This study was designed as a retrospective cohort study that recruited patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease between September 2013 and December 2018 in Daping Hospital, Chongqing, China. The primary outcome was a composite outcome that included all-cause mortality, recurrent angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary re-vascularization, and non-fatal strokes. Of the 827 patients with NSTEMI, 32 did not complete follow-up and 430 were excluded because of single-vessel disease. The remaining 365 NSTEMI patients with MVD had a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 2.6–3.3) years, 78 patients experienced outcomes. The GRACE risk score predicted the MACE (hazard ratio 1.014, 95% CI 1.006–1.021, P < 0.001). The GRACE risk score performed well in predicting all-cause mortality (c-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.59–0.85, P = 0.001) in MVD but was less powerful in predicting MACE (c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI 0.62–0.75, P < 0.001). When combining the GRACE risk score with the SYNTAX score, and blood urea nitrogen for predicting all-cause mortality and MACE events, the c-statistic value increased to 0.82 and 0.81 (P < 0.001). Conclusion: In NSTEMI patients with MVD, the GRACE score showed an acceptable predictive value for all-cause mortality, but it was less powerful in predicting MACE. Blood urea nitrogen may be valuable in assessing long-term cardiovascular events in patients with MVD.