Degrees of Return: Estimating Internal Rates of Return for College Majors Using Quantile Regression

Abstract

Using data collected from more than 5.8 million high school and college graduates ages 18 to 65 years who participated in the American Community Survey between 2009 and 2021, the authors estimate the internal rates of return (IRRs) for individuals with college degrees in 10 broad majors compared with high school graduates. The analysis shows significant differences in the age-earnings trajectories and IRRs across college majors. Furthermore, quantile regression analyses show that IRR is generally higher at the high end of the earnings distribution compared with the low end. Finally, the authors observed a slight decrease in IRR during the study period, which is consistent with the flattening and even decline in college wage premiums following the 2008 Great Recession.