North Atlantic polar lows and weather regimes: do current links persist in a warmer climate?

Abstract

Polar low development over the North Atlantic under a warmer climate is assessed using simulations of an atmospheric–oceanic coupled general circulation model, specifically with regards to the evolution of large-scale atmospheric variability described by weather regimes, and their links with lower-layer static stability. While a relationship has been identified for the present climate, under a warmer climate, polar low favorable conditions are expected to occur less often, and the large-scale circulation variability appears to have reduced influence on stability, and thus, on polar low occurrence.