A Risk Assessment Model for Dam Combining the Probabilistic and the Nonprobabilistic Methods

Abstract

The dam reliability study is essential for dam operation safety, regarding the complexity in dam failure causes. The assessment of the dam reliability is now mainly probabilistic or nonprobabilistic. The probabilistic method is usually applied to the cases with sufficient knowledge on dam parameters, while the nonprobabilistic method is suitable for the cases with insufficient knowledge on dam parameters. Since a dam can contain multiple parameters, information abundancy can vary among those parameters, and neither the probabilistic method nor the nonprobabilistic method alone is enough for dam reliability assessment. In this paper, the probabilistic method and nonprobabilistic method are modified based on the adjusted first-order second-moment method and the interval analysis method to suit the dam reliability assessment. Based on characterization on these two methods and the research of the fusion method, the secondary performance function of the dam is constructed, and the construction method of the risk assessment model for dam is proposed. Combined with a case study, this paper contributes to the safe operation of the dam.