A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HOLT’S, ARIMA, AND PROPHET METHODS IN FORECASTING KIJANG GOLD PRICES

Abstract

This study conducts a detailed comparison of three forecasting methods namely Holt's Method, ARIMA Model, and Prophet Method to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting the fluctuating prices of Kijang Gold. In addition, this paper highlights the importance of accurate forecasts in financial planning and investment, especially emphasizing the role of gold as a stable asset during economic uncertainties. Indeed, five-year periods of data from 2019 to 2023 are used in assessing the methods’ accuracy and reliability. This research measures the forecast models obtained by using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that Holt's Method is the most effective method, better than ARIMA Model and Prophet Tool.