MONKEYPOX MATHEMATICAL MODEL WITH SURVEILLANCE AS CONTROL

Abstract

A compartmental mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) was developed and analyzed. The model incorporates proper surveillance and contact tracing as effective controls. The equilibrium states of the model were obtained and analyzed both locally and globally. The effective reproduction number, Rm was obtained and the sensitivity of the model parameters were studied using Rm as the threshold of transmission. When the infection becomes endemic, Rm ≅ 1, the model exhibits a backward bifurcation but Rm < 1 which means that the interventions tend to MPXV containment. Numerical simulations to bespeak our findings and discussions are provided. Our result shows that surveillance and contact tracing are effective for the containment of MPXV in the absence of a perfect vaccine.