A real-time flow forecasting with deep convolutional generative adversarial network: Application to flooding event in Denmark

Abstract

Real-time flood forecasting is crucial for supporting emergency responses to inundation-prone regions. Due to uncertainties in the future (e.g., meteorological conditions and model parameter inputs), it is challenging to make accurate forecasts of spatiotemporal floods. In this paper, a real-time predictive deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) is developed for flooding forecasting. The proposed methodology consists of a two-stage process: (1) dynamic flow learning and (2) real-time forecasting. In dynamic flow learning, the deep convolutional neural networks are trained to capture the underlying flow patterns of spatiotemporal flow fields. In real-time forecasting, the DCGAN adopts a cascade predictive procedure. The last one-time step-ahead forecast from the DCGAN can act as a new input for the next time step-ahead forecast, which forms a long lead-time forecast in a recursive way. The model capability is assessed using a 100-year return period extreme flood event occurred in Greve, Denmark. The results indicate that the predictive fluid flows from the DCGAN and the high fidelity model are in a good agreement (the correlation coefficient ≥ 97 % and the mean absolute error ≤ 0.008 m) for a lead-900 time step forecast. This is an important step toward real-time flow forecasting although further evaluation of the DCGAN performance is required in complex realistic cases in the future.