Development of a risk assessment methodological framework for potentially pandemic influenza strains (FLURISK)

Abstract

The fact that an influenza virus of swine origin unexpectedly became the most recent human pandemic virus and that a low pathogenicity avian influenza virus H7N9 is currently causing human health concerns in Asia highlights deficiencies in current influenza pandemic preparedness. With the aim to systematically assess the potential public health threat posed by animal influenza viruses, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has commissioned the FLURISK project. The project.s main objective is the development and validation of a methodological influenza risk assessment framework (IRAF) capable of assessing the pandemic potential of new influenza viruses or viral subtypes emerging in animals. The project developed a prototype spatial epidemiological model which includes both virological and epidemiological components and data input is either generated through different specific activities of the project (global surveys, literature reviews, expert elicitation, etc.) or derived from existing databases (e.g. FAO.s EMPRES-i database; animal species population density by production system from the FAO.s Gridded Livestock of the World). The output of the IRAF model is a list of ranked animal viruses according to their potential to infect humans. Opportunity maps are generated to highlight high risk regions. The project has identified a number of scientific gaps concerning both epidemiological and virological factors potentially influencing the jump between animal species and from animals to humans. As a result of the gap analysis, priority research needs have been identified and will be put forward to the scientific community.