Can ensembles of regional climate model simulations improve results from sensitivity studies?

Abstract

Intrinsic variability (IV) in regional climate models (RCMs) is often assumed to be small because at climatological timescales, the model solutions tend to be dominated by the model's lateral boundary conditions. Recent studies have indicated that this IV may actually be large in certain instances for some variables. Direct interpretation of anomalies from RCM sensitivity studies relies on the assumption that differences between model simulations are entirely due to a physical forcing. However, if IV is as large or larger than the physical signal, then this assumption is violated. Using a 20 member ensemble of RCM simulations, we verify that IV of precipitation within a RCM can be large enough to violate the sensitivity study assumption, and we show that generating ensembles of simulations can help reduce the level of IV. We also present two indicators that can rule out the influence of IV when it is ambiguous whether anomalies within a sensitivity study are due to the sensitivity perturbation or whether they are due to IV. © 2010 The Author(s).