Analyzing Rear-End Crash Counts on Ohio Interstate Freeways Using Advanced Multilevel Modeling

Abstract

This study presents a new modeling approach for rear-end crash counts on Ohio’s interstate freeways based on a dataset for 2021 that contains 2745 rear-end crashes. The analysis encompasses 20 interstate freeways, comprising 1833 homogeneous segments and extending over approximately 1313 miles. These interstate freeways exhibit varying safety performances, indicating a significant degree of heterogeneity. A unique rear-end crash risk rate was devised for each interstate, capturing diverse risk profiles. Three distinct models were developed: a standard negative binomial model, an uncorrelated two-level negative binomial model, and a correlated two-level negative binomial model. The correlated two-level negative binomial model demonstrated superior fit, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. The correlated two-level negative binomial model exhibited enhanced forecasting precision, as measured by the Root Mean Square Error. A significant finding is that the rear-end crash risk rate significantly improves the fit of the models. The study also reveals that rear-end crashes are expected to occur more frequently in urban segments of interstate freeways with high rear-end risk rates. However, rural segments experience no such significant variations in the rear-end crash risk rate. However, an increase in the inner shoulder width is associated with a decrease in expected rear-end crashes. This research offers a valuable methodology for modeling rear-end crashes on interstate freeways, providing insights into the contributing variables that could inform targeted safety improvements.