Estimating Excess Deaths by Race/Ethnicity in the State of California During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Introduction: To examine excess mortality among minorities in California during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series, we estimated counterfactual total deaths using historical data (2014–2019) of all-cause mortality by race/ethnicity. Estimates were compared to pandemic mortality trends (January 2020 to January 2021) to predict excess deaths during the pandemic for each race/ethnic group. Results: Our findings show a significant disparity among minority excess deaths, including 7892 (24.6% increase), 4903 (20.4%), 30,186 (47.7%), and 22,027 (12.6%) excess deaths, including deaths identified as COVID-19-related, for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic individuals, respectively. Estimated increases in all-cause deaths excluding COVID-19 deaths were 1331, 1436, 3009, and 5194 for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic individuals, respectively. However, the rate of excess deaths excluding COVID-19 recorded deaths per 100 k was disproportionately high for Black (66 per 100 k) compared to White non-Hispanic (36 per 100 k). The rates for Asians and Hispanics were 23 and 19 per 100 k. Conclusions: Our findings emphasize the importance of targeted policies for minority populations to lessen the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on their communities.