Predicting surgical site infections using a novel nomogram in patients with hepatocelluar carcinoma undergoing hepatectomy

Abstract

BACKGROUND Surgical site infections (SSI) remain a major cause of morbidity after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIM To identify the risk factors associated with SSI, and develop a nomogram to predict SSI among patients undergoing hepatectomy. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed the data of patients diagnosed with HCC undergoing hepatectomy at two academic institutions in China, and evaluated the occurrence of SSI. Independent risk factors for SSI were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on these independent risk factors, a nomogram was established using the data of patients in the first institution, and was validated using data from an external independent cohort from the second institution. RESULTS The nomogram was established using data from 309 patients, whereas the validation cohort used data from 331 patients. The operation duration, serum albumin level, repeat hepatectomy, and ASA score were identified as independent risk factors. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for SSI prediction in the training cohort was 0.86; this nomogram also performed well in the external validation cohort, with a C-index of 0.84. Accordingly, we stratified patients into three groups, with a distinct risk range based on the nomogram prediction, to guide clinical practice. CONCLUSION Our novel nomogram offers good preoperative prediction for SSIs in patients undergoing hepatectomy.