Comparison of SSA and SARIMA in Forecasting the Rainfall in Sumatera Barat

Abstract

Rainfall data in West Sumatra in 2001-2018 is assumed to have a seasonal pattern. Several methods can be used to model this data, including SSA and SARIMA. Each method has a different approach but has its own advantages. Therefore, a comparison will be made between the two based on the MAPE. According to the forecasting result, obtained MAPE for SSA is 17% and 22.75% for SARIMA.