Environmental conditions drive both spatial and temporal changes in Spanish rural land systems

Abstract

Rural land systems are complex and dynamic socio-ecological entities that may play a crucial role in sustaining biodiversity and human well-being. Despite their relevance, the mechanisms driving the spatial organisation and temporal reconfiguration of these systems remain insufficiently understood, particularly in the context of global change, where ecological variability and socio-economic pressures increasingly interact. This study identifies the main types of rural land systems in Spain, examining their spatial distribution and recent temporal changes, as well as the underlying drivers. Using socio-economic and land-use data from 6168 municipalities, we developed a typology of rural land systems through hierarchical clustering with spatial constraints. We then analysed the distribution of the 14 resulting types across climatic, topographic and primary production gradients using ANOVA. Furthermore, we assessed their recent dynamics, disentangling the main environmental and socio-economic drivers of change with logistic regression models. Climate and terrain strongly structured the distribution of these systems, differentiating geographically constrained and specialised agricultural types from more widespread and multifunctional ones. During the study period, one quarter of the municipalities transitioned to a different rural land system type, mainly through land-use intensification or abandonment. These transitions were more likely to occur under specific environmental conditions (low primary production, gentle slopes, warmer and drier climates) and socio-economic contexts (low rural land value). These trends, mirroring broader transformations across European landscapes, indicate that environmental conditions are key determinants of rural land system distribution and dynamics, underscoring the need to integrate them into rural development strategies and land-use policies.