Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, may to june 2015

Abstract

South Korea is experiencing the largest outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infections outside the Arabian Peninsula, with 166 laboratory- confirmed cases, including 24 deaths up to 19 June 2015. We estimated that the mean incubation period was 6.7 days and the mean serial interval 12.6 days. We found it unlikely that infectiousness precedes symptom onset. Based on currently available data, we predict an overall case fatality risk of 21% (95% credible interval: 14–31).