Evaluating and Predicting Wildfire Burn Severity Through Stand Structure and Seasonal NDVI: A Case Study of the March 2025 Uiseong Wildfire

Abstract

This study examined the structural and ecological drivers of burn severity during the March 2025 wildfire in Uiseong County, Republic of Korea, with a focus on developing a predictive framework using the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR). Seventeen candidate variables were evaluated, among which the forest type, stand age, tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were consistently identified as the most influential predictors. Burn severity increased across all forest types up to the 4th–5th age classes before declining in older stands. Coniferous forests exhibited the highest severity at the 5th age class (mean dNBR = 0.3069), followed by mixed forests (0.2771) and broadleaf forests (0.2194). Structural factors reinforced this pattern, as coniferous and mixed forests recorded maximum severity within the 5–11 m height range, while broadleaf forests showed relatively stable severity across 3–21 m but declined thereafter. In the final prediction model, NDVI emerged as the dominant variable, integrating canopy density, vegetation vigor, and moisture conditions. Notably, NDVI exhibited a positive correlation with burn severity in coniferous stands during this early-spring event, diverging from the generally negative relationship reported in previous studies. This seasonal anomaly underscores the need to interpret NDVI flexibly in relation to the forest type, stand age, and phenological stage. Overall, the model results demonstrate that mid-aged stands with moderate heights and dense canopy cover are the most fire-prone, whereas older, taller stands show reduced susceptibility. By integrating NDVI with structural attributes, this modeling approach provides a scalable tool for the spatial prediction of wildfire severity and supports resilience-based forest management under climate change.