Optimization of the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality

Abstract

The gas power industry, as an important part of the clean energy process in China, plays a special role under the goal of carbon neutrality. In order to quantify the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality, this paper constructs a dynamic nonlinear profit optimization model of gas power industry by maximizing the profit of natural gas supply and electricity demand under multiple economic environments based on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Then, carries out scenario quantitative analysis on the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality by comparatively analyzing the status quo (reference scenario) and the carbon neutrality scenario. And the following conclusions are reached. First, the long-term development prospect of gas power enterprises is better in the carbon neutrality scenario than in the reference scenario. Second, power generation subsidies are the main income sources of gas power enterprises in the carbon neutrality scenario, so the government shall provide gas power enterprises with appropriate subsidies. Third, gas power enterprises are influenced more by the natural gas market price. Lower natural gas price is conducive to the better development of gas power enterprises. Therefore, the government shall pay attention to natural gas market price and appropriately increase the subsidies to ensure the basic income of gas power enterprises when the natural gas price rises. Fourth, the government shall reduce or cancel the constraint of minimum power generation scale to gas power enterprises, which is favorable for the healthy development of gas power enterprises and promotes the marketization of power generation and peak shaving. And meanwhile, gas power enterprises shall strengthen technological development and innovation and improve management efficiency.