Modeling and simulation of decision support system analysis of the road transport system in Nigeria

Abstract

The complex analysis of traffic system safety in Nigeria based on qualitative and simulation modeling was performed. These models allow us to perform a preliminary assessment of measures aimed at safety improvement of the traffic system situation in Nigeria, and to make projections to improve the parameters of the transport system. In this paper, the results of the system analysis of the transport network safety in Nigeria based on qualitative and simulation modeling are presented. The qualitative model of transport network safety and the model of system dynamics is developed, the safety measures based on simulation are suggested. The obtained results could be used for support of decision making in the field of transport network management in Nigeria. The experiments were conducted on qualitative models, they showed the effect on the transport system parameters of such measures: increasing fines for violations of the road regulations and increasing of the funding of the road repairing and construction. The support organization in decision-making in the management of the urban transport system development is very important. This problem can be solved with the use of different approaches. The use of qualitative and dynamic-system modeling for complex analysis of the transport system and evaluation of measures effectiveness aimed at improving its safety is proposed in this paper.