Non-homogeneous diffusion of residential crime in urban China

Abstract

The relationship between crime and urban environment has always been the focus of crime geography. Like diseases which can transmit and diffuse, crimes may also spread during a certain period of time and to a certain area by the near-repeat effect. Traditional near-repeat analysis focuses on the spatial spread of crimes to adjacent areas, with little regard to the displacement effect. Crime displacement refers to the relocation of criminal events as a result of policing efforts. If this phenomenon is neglected, the near-repeat analysis will tend not to obtain the overall spatial distribution pattern of criminal cases, leading to limited effectiveness of crime control. This paper presents a non-homogeneous diffusion model where crime spreads not only to spatially and temporally adjacent areas, but also to areas with similar environmental characteristics. By virtue of spatial constraints and environmental characteristics, the most vulnerable areas are identified, and this will be helpful for developing policing strategy as well as for sustainable community development.