Monte carlo simulation for predicting the reliability of a boiler in the nagan raya steam power plant

Abstract

The Nagan Raya steam power plant 2x110 Megawatt is one of the power plants owned by PT. PLN (Persero) located in Aceh. The Nagan Raya steam power plant that operates continuously is often failure. An overhaul of maintenance activities that lasted only six months was the cause of frequent disruptions or failures. Performance evaluation in terms of reliability is urgently needed to minimize the failure. This study aims to determine the level of reliability and preventive maintenance time based on Monte Carlo simulation to the nine critical components of the boiler section. Monte Carlo simulations are used to predict precise maintenance time and future reliability values. Monte Carlo simulation results on nine important components of the boiler section, maintenance time is required within 40 days to 86 days of maintenance with a reliability value of 31% to 38%.