The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Polish Banking Sector – the Household Loans Portfolio

Abstract

The study aims to identify changes in non-performing household loans (NPLs) and their main determinants in the Polish banking sector for the period 2009-2021. Specifically, we look at the main determinants of creditworthiness of households which determine the possibility of repayment of principal installments and interest within the prescribed period. The results of the VECM model confirm the considerable significance of GDP per capita, gross salaries and lending rates to NPL loans of households. The results of the response function show a positive impact of GDP per capita and lending rates on NPLs and a negative impact of real salaries on NPLs. The decomposition of variance in the forecast period confirms an increased level of explanation of NPL by GDP per capita, gross salaries, and the lending rates.