Characteristic of extreme rainfall in Makassar, Province of South Sulawesi

Abstract

The effect of climate change on extreme rainfall is important to note due to its damaging impact on the environment and humanity. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of extreme rainfall in the Province of South Sulawesi. The characteristics investigated are trends and models of extreme rainfall distribution. Trend analysis of extreme rainfall used the Mann-Kendall Test. Modeling of extreme rainfall distribution used the Annual Maximum approach with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The extreme rainfall distribution model is approached with non-stationary models. The method of parameter estimation used the maximum likelihood method coupled with the BFGS Quasi-Newton methods. Model selection performed based on the smallest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) value. Using rainfall data in Makassar rain gauge for a period from 1983 to 2015, the results show that there is a decreasing trend of extreme rainfall in Makassar Municipality and the appropriate distribution model for extreme rainfall data is a non-stationary model.