MODELING HOUSEHOLD TRIP GENERATION FOR SELECTED ZONES AT AL-KARKH SIDE OF BAGHDAD CITY

Abstract

Trip generation is the first phase in the travel forecasting process. It involves the estimation of thetotal number of trips entering or leaving a parcel of land per time period (usually on a daily basis);as a function of the socioeconomic, locational, and land-use characteristics of the parcel.The objective of this study is to develop statistical models to predict trips production volumes for aproper target year. Non-motorized trips are considered in the modeling process. Traditional methodto forecast the trip generation volume according to trip rate, based on family type is proposed inthis study. Families are classified by three characteristics of population social class, income, andnumber of vehicle ownership. The study area is divided into 10 sectors. Each sector is subdividedinto number of zones so; the total number of zones is 45 zones based on the administrativedivisions. The trip rate for the family is determined by sampling. A questionnaire is designed andinterviews are implemented for data collection from selected zones at Al-Karkh side of Baghdadcity. Two techniques have been used, full interview and home questionnaire. The questionnaireforms are distributed in many institutes, intermediate, secondary and, commercial schools. Thedeveloped models are total person trips /household, work trips /household, education trips/household, shopping and social/recreational trips/household and, person trips/person. These models are developed by using stepwise regression technique after the collected data being fed to SPSS software.Results show that total persons trips/household are related to family size and structure variablessuch as number of person more than 6 year age, number of male, total number of workers, totalnumber of students in the household, number of private vehicles. This model has coefficient ofdetermination equal to 0.669 for the whole study area. Also the results show that the home-basedwork trips are related to number of worker in the household, number of male workers in thehousehold, number of female workers in the household and number of persons of (25-60) year age;this model has coefficient of determination equal to 0.82 for the whole study area. Home-basededucation trips are strongly related to number of students in the household and this model hascoefficient of determination equal to 0.90 for the whole study area