Nonlinear System Simulation and Forecasting of Regional Technology Innovation Using System Dynamics Method

Abstract

This study analyzed complex causal feedback loops in Regional Technology Innovation (RTI) system and established a system dynamics (SD) model of RTI. Taking China Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone as a sample, and running the model in VENSIM, it shows high fitting precision and good extrapolating performance. The simulation gives out the future trends of RTI, FCD, ATD and IPR royalties international trade of the region. This study proposed an effective model of RTI, and more importantly, it points out the type, direction and magnitude of the effects caused by IPR policy in RTI system. This SD model can also be used in policy effect simulation in the future.