Contemporary fire regimes and elephant impacts in Baikiaea-dominated woodlands of the Chobe region, northern Botswana

Abstract

Background: Savanna ecosystems constitute approximately 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface and are increasingly under threat from various factors including effects of climate change. In Baikiaea plurijuga-dominated woodlands of Botswana, the combination of destructive fire regimes and large elephant populations has been cited as a major cause of adverse vegetation changes in African savanna and woodland systems. Aims: We assessed the status of fire regimes in Botswana’s premium wildlife eco-tourism Chobe region to determine whether market-based fire management could be applied to support broader ecological fire management and employment outcomes. Methods: The methods used were: (1) reconstructed fire regimes from the early 1990s coinciding with the cessation of commercial timber exploitation; (2) combined automated MODIS 250 m and manually derived Landsat 30 m burn scar products to generate a 33-year Fire Frequency Index (FFI); (3) classified regional vegetation structural types derived from a 5-year (2021–2024) early dry season Landsat median image; and (4) assessed dry season elephant population density distributions in relation to fire occurrence. Key results: Frequent (on average, one in every 2.5 years) and relatively severe late dry season fires were characteristic in more open-canopied legume-dominated savannas and grasslands in the eastern sector of the project area. Elephant distributions in the dry season were independent of fire occurrence. Wildfires plausibly cause relatively greater impacts to Baikiaea-dominated vegetation macro-structure than elephants. Conclusions: Multiple factors including national fire exclusion policy contribute to contemporary fire patterning in the Chobe regional landscape. Implications: We suggest that carbon market-based approaches have potential for contributing to ecologically sustainable fire management and local employment opportunities.