A Multi-Indicator Hazard Mechanism Framework for Flood Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation: A Case Study of Rizhao, China

Abstract

Urban flooding has become a critical environmental challenge under global climate change and rapid urbanization. This study develops a multi-indicator hazard mechanism framework for flood hazard assessment in Rizhao, a coastal city in China, by integrating three fundamental hydrological processes: runoff generation, flow convergence, and drainage. Based on geospatial data—including DEM, road networks, land cover, and soil characteristics—six key indicators were evaluated using the TOPSIS method: runoff curve number, impervious surface percentage, topographic wetness index, time of concentration, pipeline density, and distance to rivers. The results show that extreme-hazard zones, covering 6.41% of the central urban area, are primarily clustered in northern sectors, where flood susceptibility is driven by the synergistic effects of high imperviousness, short concentration time, and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Independent validation using historical flood records confirmed the model’s reliability, with 83.72% of documented waterlogging points located in predicted high-hazard zones and an AUC value of 0.737 indicating good discriminatory performance. Based on spatial hazard patterns and causal mechanisms, an integrated mitigation strategy system of “source reduction, process regulation, and terminal enhancement” is proposed. This strategy provides practical guidance for pipeline rehabilitation and sponge city implementation in Rizhao’s resilience planning, while the developed hazard mechanism framework of “runoff–convergence–drainage” provides a transferable methodology for flood hazard assessment in large-scale urban environments.