Grid-Search-Optimized, Gated Recurrent Unit-Based Prediction Model for Ionospheric Total Electron Content

Abstract

Accurately predicting the ionosphere’s Total Electron Content (TEC) is significant for ensuring the regular operation of satellite navigation and communication systems and space weather prediction. To further improve the accuracy of TEC prediction, this paper proposes a TEC prediction model based on the grid-optimized Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU). This model has the following main features: (1) it uses statistical learning methods to interpolate the missing data of TEC observations; (2) it constructs a sliding time window by using the multi-dimensional time series features of two types of solar activity indices to support modeling; (3) It adopts grid search combined with optimization of network depth, time step length, and other hyperparameters to significantly enhance the model’s ability to extract the characteristics of the ionospheric 11-year cycle and seasonal variations. Taking the EGLIN station as an example, the proposed model is verified. The experimental results show that the root mean square error of the GRU model during the period from 2019 to 2020 was 0.78 TECU, which was significantly lower than those of the CCIR, URSI, and statistical machine learning models. Compared with the other three models, the RMSE error of the GRU model was reduced by 72.73%, 72.64%, and 57.38%, respectively. The above research verifies the advantages of the proposed model in predicting TEC and provides a new idea for ionospheric modeling.