Mudanças políticas recentes e competitividade no mercado internacional de soja

Abstract

Although the world market seems to be expanding, with an increasing participation of the Asian East, mainly of China, it is still subject to much debate related to the use of genetic modified varieties, to commercial disputes within WTO due to agriculture protection, and to effects of ALCA's establishment, joining the three main exporters. In the short run, emphasis was given to the last two American agricultural bills which raised their subsidies to their soybean producers and the adoption by Brazil and by Argentine, in 1999 and 2002, respectively, of floating exchange systems, with drastic currency devaluation. The effects of the recent political changes are analyzed using a general equilibrium model. The conclusions indicate that currency devaluation in Brazil and Argentine more than compensated the increase in the American subsidies to its soybean producers, Brazil being mostly benefited; For Brazil, particularly, the world market expansion appears promising, since its the only exporter with the possibility of largely increasing its production and it has competitive costs. © 2007 Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural.