Risk Assessment and Prediction of Aflatoxin in Agro-Products

Abstract

Aflatoxin (AFT), highly toxic and carcinogenic to humans, seriously threatens consumption safety of agro-products. It is necessary to conduct risk assessment of aflatoxin contamination in agro-food products to find out critical control points (CCPs) and develop prediction, prevention and control theories and technologies. In this chapter, risk assessment and prediction of aflatoxin contamination in peanut were taken as an example. The values under the limit of detection (LOD) were replaced by zero, 1/2 LOD or LOD according to their respective proportion, and the distribution of values higher than the LOD was fitted by @RISK software. AFB1 dietary exposure was evaluated based on nonparametric probability risk assessment and margin of exposure (MOE). A risk ranking method was adopted for mycotoxins based on food risk expectation ranking. Spatial analysis of AFB1 contamination was conducted using geographic information system (GIS). Average climatic conditions were calculated by Thiessen polygon method and the relationship between AFB1 concentration and average pre-harvest climatic conditions was obtained through multiple regression. To fulfill the purposes of reducing cost, increasing efficiency, maximizing the role of risk assessment and prediction, and improving the quality and safety of agricultural products, we will continuously focus on developing advanced and integrated technologies and solutions.